The physician workforce is projected to grow 1.1% a year through 2030, according to a Health Affairs study published July 7, 2026. Over the same period, the nurse practitioner (NP) workforce is projected to grow 11.0% a year and the physician associate (PA) workforce 5.6% a year, a growth-rate gap of roughly ten to one between physicians and NPs.
The study, led by Monica O'Reilly-Jacob and Lusine Poghosyan of Columbia University School of Nursing with co-authors from Brandeis University, George Washington University, and Emory University, used a Cohort Supply Model built on 40 years of census data to track how each profession enters and stays in the workforce across different birth cohorts. For a practice executive planning next year's staffing budget, the gap between those growth rates is the number that matters more than the raw counts.
The size of the gap by 2030
Applying those growth rates forward, the researchers project a U.S. physician workforce of 1,068,016 by 2030. NPs and PAs combined are projected to reach 912,265 over the same stretch. The two lines are not projected to cross by 2030, but the gap closes to about 155,751 clinicians. A combined NP and PA workforce near the size of the physician workforce is the study's baseline projection for 2030.
The growth rates behind that projection are not new trends invented for the forecast. Between 2016 and 2023, the NP workforce grew at a 10.0% average annual rate, the PA workforce at 8.6%, and the physician workforce at 1.1%, according to the same study. The 2030 projections mostly extend the physician and NP trends already visible in the data, with PA growth expected to slow from its 2016-2023 pace of 8.6% to a projected 5.6% through 2030.
Where the growth is coming from
Training-pipeline output drives the supply side. NP graduate numbers rose 97.0% between 2014 and 2023, and PA graduate numbers rose 69.0% over the same nine years, per the Health Affairs analysis. Medical school class sizes and residency slots expand far more slowly than the enrollment capacity of NP and PA training programs, so physician graduate output never saw a comparable jump.
That pipeline difference already shows up in realized headcount. Between 2016 and 2023, the U.S. added roughly 151,000 NPs and roughly 79,000 PAs to the workforce, compared with roughly 61,000 physicians added over the same seven years. NPs alone added more than double the number of new physicians. Add PAs to the total and combined NP and PA growth outpaced physician growth by nearly four to one over those seven years.
| Clinician type | Annual growth, 2016-2023 | Projected annual growth through 2030 | New clinicians added, 2016-2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Physicians | 1.1% | 1.1% | ~61,000 |
| Physician associates | 8.6% | 5.6% | ~79,000 |
| Nurse practitioners | 10.0% | 11.0% | ~151,000 |
Source: O'Reilly-Jacob et al., "Workforce Projections For Physicians, Nurse Practitioners, And Physician Associates," Health Affairs, July 7, 2026.
Why the physician side of that table stays flat
A 1.1% annual growth rate turns into a shortfall once demand is added to the picture. A separate report from the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), "The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections From 2021 to 2036," projects a total physician shortfall of between 13,500 and 86,000 by 2036, including a primary care shortfall of between 20,200 and 40,400 and a surgical specialty shortfall of up to 19,900. AAMC commissioned GlobalData Plc to build those projections, covering the fifteen years from 2021 through 2036.
The AAMC report ties much of that demand growth to the aging of the population it expects practices to keep serving. The number of Americans age 65 and older is projected to grow 34.0% by 2036, and that age group generates more visits per person than any other. A physician workforce growing 1.1% a year and a 65-and-older population growing 34.0% by 2036 are the two halves of the shortfall the AAMC projects.
What the gap means for a staffing plan
A 1.1% annual growth rate for physicians is still growth, and recruiting physicians stays part of a sound staffing plan; the AAMC's own shortfall range, 13,500 to 86,000 by 2036, is narrower than the association's 2021 projection, credited to expected increases in residency funding. A five-year staffing plan built around physician recruitment alone is still planning against the slower-growing side of a labor market that is adding NPs and PAs far faster.
For an independent practice or billing company, the ratio matters more than the direction alone. NPs and PAs combined are projected to add clinicians at a pace that puts their total headcount within reach of the physician workforce by 2030, up from a workforce that was a fraction of physician headcount as recently as 2016. A staffing and compensation model built entirely around physician wRVU targets rests on the workforce segment growing slowest. A hiring pipeline, credentialing process, and payer-enrollment workflow built to bring on NPs and PAs at the pace the national data shows them entering the workforce adds capacity faster over the next four years.
Sources
- Health Affairs, "Workforce Projections For Physicians, Nurse Practitioners, And Physician Associates," July 7, 2026
- Columbia University School of Nursing, "New Research Reveals Nurse Practitioner Workforce Growth Outpaces Projections as Physician and Physician Associate Growth Remains Steady"
- Becker's Hospital Review, "Nurse practitioner workforce growth to far outpace physicians, physician assistants: Study"
- Journal of Urgent Care Medicine, "NP Workforce Growing Quickly, While Physicians Remain Steady"
- AAMC, "New AAMC Report Shows Continuing Projected Physician Shortage"
- Medical Economics, "Med school association projects physician shortfall of 86,000 by 2036"
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